I really messed up today. I watch people make stupid mistakes all the time, tell myself I don't want to repeat those, try to learn what went wrong, but then it happens to me.

I had a (bad) plan today, stuck to it, saw it through the bitter end, and took a big loss. The problem is why I had such a plan in the first place, and felt like it was worth the conviction (stubbornness) I had in taking the big loss.

I'm really at a loss for words right now, as it hurts more now after the fact thinking back on it than I thought it would as I watched my P/L col grow bigger and bigger all afternoon. I wish I had a valid reason as to why I let this happen, but I don't. I suppose it's hindsight bias, if the move I wanted to happen, happened, then I'd be sitting pretty with a nice multi-k profit and feel amazing finally sticking to my plan and winning. I guess I'm my own worse enemy.

There's two parts to this really.

1. I was up just around $400 earlier this morning on a dip with a bit of size, could have covered and called it, but I didn't, not because I wanted more money, but because of my experience watching this stock, and how I just don't stick to my plan and always cover too soon. Basically, this would have been my normal type of trade, except I had more size than usual, so 10c on 3k shares is $300, so it was a low % of the value of the trade I was taking and the risk I was willing to accept.

I thought today that I would finally take a step forward, be patient, and let what I strongly thought would happen, happen, then be able to swing short for a nice profit, showing that I've actually learned to get in better control of my emotions, and let things play out rather than be so scared all the time and take 5c-10c moves.

Going into the trade, I told myself I'm not breaking some of my new core rules:
- Don't short pre-market [I can't be consistent this way]
- Wait at least 15m before starting your first position, and only short when I see justification for the position [I can't be consistent playing with open/close volatility]
- Add with half size, and be willing to short into the failed bounces and short cover pops. [I need to accept more risk shorting to not get scared out]
- Don't chicken out of the trade for small profits rather than letting things play out and be more willing to take a loss in the end. [I need to learn to stick to my plans better and start hitting solid winners]
- For this trade, I was willing to use size, no more than 5k shares, and be willing to risk a lot more than I typically do because of how long I've watched this ticker and how it typically behaves. [I told myself stop bagholding, especially biotechs, so it was 100% not a long]

Throughout the day, I kept telling myself, that it's 'ok', the price action was weak, the stock isn't showing any conviction in the move it's making, there's a ton of bagholders, and I'm willing to take a larger loss than normal to make sure I see my plan through. I've seen this action before where new bagholders get sucked in, the stock rejects various levels, then fades all day into a big panic, and then follows up with another nice red day.

I was justifying the moves and thinking it won't sustain, and I'm still fine, I can keep adding, there's a good chance by this afternoon I'll be laughing at how the stock reversed so hard as I've seen so many times before, etc...

The problem is, I was trying so hard to control emotions and not chicken out of my plan, that I quite literally stopped being scared of the risks of shorting. I thought to myself, "oh, I can risk up a few thousand dollars because I saw my potential reward being higher." I've seen time and time again, these bios with news that spike after a run into multi-year resistance, can dump so hard and reverse, so I really thought that was going to be the play of the day.

 

2. I lost my normal trading "scared" mentality and forcefully stopped thinking about just cutting losses and trying again later. This is because I was so focused on executing my plan, I didn't stop and think, "well, what if I'm, wrong and this just goes the entire day?" The signs were there, but I just wasn't seeing them.

I had so many opportunities to cut losses, but I just never felt the need to. I think this is what bugs me the most about this loss, I just never felt the need to cut losses, which is terrible, terrible, terrible. I was in hard denial for no good reason, and really let things spiral out of control. I was not scared at all, it always felt like this is price action that spooks people long and short, then it just dies later in the day.

The next thing you know, I'm at full account size, almost at my abs. max risk, and I can't average up anymore, and it's almost the close. My average was so out of position now, that even if the stock tanked a good 75c, I'd still be eating a 1k loss.

It was at this point I realized how bad I messed up with my plan.

I don't know why I let this happen as it did, it's not like I need the money, and I got lucky with $CLRB and got back everything I lost, so I was really just wanting to hit a solid short on something I've watched for so long, and was looking to short before but just never saw the right opportunity.

Lately, the market has been terrible for runners, as there's not too many that have gone and not just faded in the afternoon. I felt like I was going to be right, I just needed to stomach being down more than usual, control emotions, and stick to the plan and I would be rewarded come the afternoon. I really thought I was not shorting the front side of the move, and I might have been right, but I should have cut losses as soon as it started to show new life and really go against me.

 

Well, there it is. -$3700, setting me back big again when I was just starting to build more confidence and thought I was getting in control of things after taking a month long break.

I had the Friday long loss, thinking it wasn't a good short, and turned out to be a really profitable short, but that wasn't on my mind since it was only -$75 in the end. I felt like I could have done better with $AXON if I had allowed for more risk and let it fade. Now, this is a new really bad loss for the year.

I'm still trying to figure things out on my own. This loss really sucks because I tried to fight my instincts for the sake of hitting a solid trade, and it backfired big time. I was more willing to take a big loss than get out for minimal profits or a smaller loss, because I just feel like I'm not making progress at times because of my mentality of chickening out of trades too soon.

Being willing to take a 1k loss, then watching it go to 2k, 3k, 4k and not being scared is a huge problem in itself, because that's basically what has led me to bagholding in the past, and I told myself I never want to baghold again. Today, I made a big bet and was wrong and entered bag holding mentality again and was powerless to stop myself.

But, now that I actually have the -$3700 loss that I was willing to take, even though I really didn't, I regret losing so much on one trade in one day. My account is still 'ok', I didn't take myself out of the game, but I gave a lot of money back to the market for no good reason.

I don't feel like quitting trading though, but I'm painfully reminded again how far I have to go still. This is not a market for longs really, there's been a couple insane plays ($CLPS, $GEVO), but overall it still feels like a shorting market. I've tried to be really careful and only take trades on things that look really good, that I think have a good opportunity to make a winning trade on, so I was totally comfortable sizing up on $VSTM today and taking the risk.

Well, I took the risk, was wrong, and paid the price. I'm going to need to revise my rules and plans and start over again, because I can't have repeat days like today. Anyways, what a terrible day, but I'll survive. I most likely will look to short $VSTM again this week, because I've seen this stock dump so many times, get offering news each time it makes new highs, that I just feel like I have a good chance to make up for this. We'll see though, I don't want to revenge trade and lose more.

Thanks for reading, and trade safe.