Here's the "read me" for how to use the spikability numbers, as well as how to get your own copy of the algorithm to run your own backtests. You can get the parameters for the screener and download it for StocksToTrade from this link. It's the "Simple End of Day Gainers" screener. Want more content? Check out the Table of Contents page.
The fundamental data is from STT data and Finviz when I needed to double check stuff. Lots of other tickers on here that were either too big (market cap / shares) or otherwise non-volatile.
Healthcare | Biotechnology | USA
| Market Cap |
163.91M |
| FT Employees |
13 |
| QUICK ratio |
11.60 |
| Shares Outstanding |
38.75M |
| Float |
37.55M |
| Short float |
4.35% |
History of large positive moves intraday (open to close)
| 10% to 25% |
6 [14.5, 17.5, 14.4, 12.7, 10.3, 18.4] |
| 25% to 50% |
0 [] |
| 50% to 100% |
0 [] |
| 100%+ |
0 [] |
History of large HOD moves (open to high):
| 25% to 50% |
2 [28.9, 32.6] |
| 50% to 100% |
0 [] |
| 100% to 200% |
0 [] |
| 200%+ |
0 [] |
History of gap up moves (prior close to next day open):
| 5% to 10% |
2 [6.0, 7.0] |
| 10% to 20% |
2 [19.1, 13.2] |
| 20% + |
2 [64.3, 180.5] |
Given a gap up (n=6), statistically the stock closes:
| +10% or better |
16.7% |
| +5% to +10% |
16.7% |
| unch (+/- 5%) |
33.3% |
| -5% to -10% |
16.7% |
| -10% or worse |
16.7% |
Given a +10% day (n=11), vs day 1 close, the 2nd day will open:
| Higher and close green |
27.3% |
| Lower and close green |
18.2% |
| Higher and close red |
54.5% |
| Lower and close red |
0.0% |
Holistic spikability score: 0 / 10
Catalyst
Minerva Neurosciences Announces Achievement of Primary and Key Secondary Objectives in Phase 2b Clinical Trial of Seltorexant (MIN-202) in Insomnia
Price Action
Pre-market gap with a short squeeze at 9AM before the open, then failed to break HOD from open and faded back down to just under 6 from Dec/Feb support.
Statistical Prediction
Very little historical spikability and neutral gap up behavior with 2nd-day odds. Long term there's enough cash/assets to cover debts easily but biotech instability and long-term downward trend means only quick snipes like the premarket squeeze are an option for longs.
Technology | Semiconductor - Specialized | United Kingdom
| Market Cap |
14.50M |
| FT Employees |
198 |
| QUICK ratio |
1.40 |
| Shares Outstanding |
13.88M |
| Float |
2.53M |
| Short float |
1.87% |
History of large positive moves intraday (open to close)
| 10% to 25% |
5 [10.4, 10.5, 11.3, 10.7, 13.0] |
| 25% to 50% |
2 [32.4, 27.1] |
| 50% to 100% |
1 [51.9] |
| 100%+ |
2 [193.9, 120.8] |
History of large HOD moves (open to high):
| 25% to 50% |
4 [45.7, 28.4, 29.2, 29.8] |
| 50% to 100% |
3 [78.4, 60.4, 54.8] |
| 100% to 200% |
1 [165.8] |
| 200%+ |
1 [352.0] |
History of gap up moves (prior close to next day open):
| 5% to 10% |
3 [9.6, 6.2, 5.0] |
| 10% to 20% |
1 [19.7] |
| 20% + |
1 [33.9] |
Given a gap up (n=5), statistically the stock closes:
| +10% or better |
40.0% |
| +5% to +10% |
0.0% |
| unch (+/- 5%) |
0.0% |
| -5% to -10% |
0.0% |
| -10% or worse |
60.0% |
Given a +10% day (n=8), vs day 1 close, the 2nd day will open:
| Higher and close green |
0.0% |
| Lower and close green |
25.0% |
| Higher and close red |
37.5% |
| Lower and close red |
37.5% |
Holistic spikability score: 8.8125 / 10
Catalyst
VivoPower International PLC Announces US Solar Portfolio Sale Update and Major Contract Wins in Australian Solar and Data Centers Resulting in Record Forward Order Book
Price Action
Nice uptrend through the day with a sell-off after 3 PM while maintaining health gains from the open. Looks like the closing price was a whole dollar magnet more than any obvious support or resistance from the past.
Statistical Prediction
Nice spikability history bit 2nd day returns look pretty weak. Probably a better short as the gains from day 1-spike are as likely to continue as they are to falter..
Healthcare | Drugs - Generic | USA
| Market Cap |
56.10M |
| FT Employees |
31 |
| QUICK ratio |
30.20 |
| Shares Outstanding |
34.42M |
| Float |
33.06M |
| Short float |
2.30% |
History of large positive moves intraday (open to close)
| 10% to 25% |
33 [11.9, 11.6, 14.1, 10.4, 24.0, 17.5, 12.5, 14.1, 17.3, 10.9, 18.2, 11.6, 10.3, 21.9, 21.5, 10.9, 20.7, 10.5, 19.6, 18.4, 11.4, 10.5, 17.7, 16.4, 21.0, 13.2, 10.2, 14.4, 23.6, 12.6, 23.2, 11.1, 17.4] |
| 25% to 50% |
11 [36.6, 29.1, 38.3, 27.4, 28.0, 46.8, 29.5, 28.9, 34.5, 39.0, |
| 50% to 100% |
0 [] |
| 100%+ |
0 [] |
History of large HOD moves (open to high):
| 25% to 50% |
24 [42.9, 45.0, 27.3, 48.2, 29.3, 39.4, 31.3, 37.5, 29.4, 40.0, 29.0, 29.7, 28.8, 26.2, 48.6, 25.6, 33.0, 30.5, 27.9, 35.5, 35.9, 42.2, 38.4, 41.7] |
| 50% to 100% |
3 [52.3, 58.3, 50.3] |
| 100% to 200% |
0 [] |
| 200%+ |
0 [] |
History of gap up moves (prior close to next day open):
| 5% to 10% |
33 [5.6, 8.0, 8.7, 6.7, 6.8, 5.5, 8.5, 8.7, 8.3, 7.1, 5.5, 8.8, 5.3, 5.1, 7.9, 6.2, 7.6, 5.4, 5.7, 5.1, 5.9, 5.6, 6.3, 5.1, 5.3, 6.2, 5.1, 5.9, 7.1, 5.6, 5.1, 6.0, 8.1] |
| 10% to 20% |
16 [11.5, 10.6, 12.2, 10.4, 12.8, 19.1, 13.0, 11.9, 10.5, 19.0, 13.8, 19.9, 17.5, 19.6, 18.8, 17.8] |
| 20% + |
13 [21.7, 43.3, 125.0, 20.0, 56.3, 28.5, 25.6, 39.5, 25.7, 24.1, 21.7, 20.5, 52.9] |
Given a gap up (n=62), statistically the stock closes:
| +10% or better |
17.7% |
| +5% to +10% |
3.2% |
| unch (+/- 5%) |
40.3% |
| -5% to -10% |
22.6% |
| -10% or worse |
16.1% |
Given a +10% day (n=52), vs day 1 close, the 2nd day will open:
| Higher and close green |
32.7% |
| Lower and close green |
11.5% |
| Higher and close red |
34.6% |
| Lower and close red |
21.2% |
Holistic spikability score: 1.5 / 10
Catalyst
India Globalization Capital Subsidiary Secures Hemp Cultivation, Harvesting License In Arizona
Price Action
Looks like this started from the 14th on the hemp cultivation news, took 2 to 3 days to stabilize and doji on day 4 (the 19th) before taking off. Long term downtrend since march makes it look like there shoudl be a lot of bagholder pressure keeping the price down but the volume from the 14th also looks like there may be a lot of shorts loaded into this and likely new ones as well to keep a potential squeeze going for a bit.
Statistical Prediction
The spikability analysis works better for quick, short moves so this being a more drawn out move, it's not as strongly represented in the numbers.
Healthcare | Biotechnology | USA
| Market Cap |
98.64M |
| FT Employees |
108 |
| QUICK ratio |
n/a |
| Shares Outstanding |
97.66M |
| Float |
55.51M |
| Short float |
2.03 |
History of large positive moves intraday (open to close)
| 10% to 25% |
11 [14.7, 11.2, 14.4, 11.9, 12.3, 15.0, 14.0, 13.1, 15.8, 11.1, 21.4] |
| 25% to 50% |
0 [] |
| 50% to 100% |
0 [] |
| 100%+ |
0 [] |
History of large HOD moves (open to high):
| 25% to 50% |
1 [30.4] |
| 50% to 100% |
0 [] |
| 100% to 200% |
0 [] |
| 200%+ |
0 [] |
History of gap up moves (prior close to next day open):
| 5% to 10% |
6 [7.6, 9.4, 8.5, 8.2, 9.1, 6.0] |
| 10% to 20% |
0 [] |
| 20% + |
0 [] |
Given a gap up (n=5), statistically the stock closes:
| +10% or better |
16.7% |
| +5% to +10% |
0.0% |
| unch (+/- 5%) |
50.0% |
| -5% to -10% |
33.3% |
| -10% or worse |
0.0% |
Given a +10% day (n=52), vs day 1 close, the 2nd day will open:
| Higher and close green |
41.7% |
| Lower and close green |
16.7% |
| Higher and close red |
41.7% |
| Lower and close red |
0.0% |
Holistic spikability score: 0 / 10
Catalyst
UPDATE 2-VBI's shares plunge after hep B vaccine fails secondary goal in late-stage trial
Price Action
Looks like this started from the 17th on failed secondary goal during a drug trial but either got bought up from being perceived as undervalued / at a discount or from the CEO buying in $100k worth of stock.
Statistical Prediction
No spikability, probably should have skipped this one but didn't realize it until now so oh well, hah. This kind of trade makes think of Connor's "School Trader" style price drop with support bounce trade.
Technology | Application Software | USA
| Market Cap |
41.50M |
| FT Employees |
6 |
| QUICK ratio |
0.10 |
| Shares Outstanding |
15.09M |
| Float |
15.09M |
| Short float |
26.54% |
History of large positive moves intraday (open to close)
| 10% to 25% |
25 [11.3, 24.3, 13.6, 21.3, 10.7, 11.5, 21.7, 10.9, 21.0, 11.8, 10.6, 24.5, 12.9, 12.7, 11.9, 10.7, 16.2, 16.7, 15.7, 11.9, 13.7, 24.1, 12.2, 11.9, 10.1] |
| 25% to 50% |
4 [29.7, 27.4, 36.1, 29.1] |
| 50% to 100% |
1 [51.1] |
| 100%+ |
0 [] |
History of large HOD moves (open to high):
| 25% to 50% |
15 [26.1, 27.6, 31.2, 30.1, 26.7, 42.8, 27.8, 29.7, 43.5, 40.1, 32.1, 25.0, 31.2, 28.3, 44.2] |
| 50% to 100% |
1 [94.1] |
| 100% to 200% |
0 [] |
| 200%+ |
0 [] |
History of gap up moves (prior close to next day open):
| 5% to 10% |
30 [5.5, 6.5, 6.1, 6.7, 8.9, 9.4, 5.9, 5.8, 5.5, 8.0, 7.2, 5.0, 7.1, 6.3, 7.6, 5.8, 6.4, 5.6, 7.3, 8.5, 6.3, 6.6, 6.4, 5.7, 5.9, 9.9, 7.1, 7.1, 5.6, 7.3] |
| 10% to 20% |
20 [14.6, 15.1, 11.2, 15.7, 14.1, 10.0, 13.8, 12.1, 13.0, 14.5, 18.3, 10.7, 11.2, 15.4, 10.5, 16.9, 18.5, 10.8, 10.4, 11.4] |
| 20% + |
3 [40.8, 20.3, 32.4] |
Given a gap up (n=53), statistically the stock closes:
| +10% or better |
15.1% |
| +5% to +10% |
9.4% |
| unch (+/- 5%) |
41.5% |
| -5% to -10% |
17.0% |
| -10% or worse |
17.0% |
Given a +10% day (n=45), vs day 1 close, the 2nd day will open:
| Higher and close green |
22.2% |
| Lower and close green |
13.3% |
| Higher and close red |
44.4% |
| Lower and close red |
20.0% |
Holistic spikability score: 1.5625 / 10
Catalyst
Bitcoin Topping $11,000 Propels Crypto-Linked Stocks Higher
Price Action
Bitcoin hype. Looks like it saved it self from an end of day sell-off at a whole-dollar magnet and at long term (mid-February and March) resistance / support.
Statistical Prediction
Some spikability but 2nd day odds point towards a red close. Doesn't mean you can't get a nice HOD before the close though.
Healthcare | Biotechnology | USA
| Market Cap |
97.84M |
| FT Employees |
10 |
| QUICK ratio |
7.00 |
| Shares Outstanding |
10.52M |
| Float |
9.81M |
| Short float |
1.24% |
History of large positive moves intraday (open to close)
| 10% to 25% |
3 [16.9, 19.4, 16.7] |
| 25% to 50% |
2 [29.5, 30.6] |
| 50% to 100% |
2 [64.6, 99.6] |
| 100%+ |
0 [] |
History of large HOD moves (open to high):
| 25% to 50% |
6 [36.4, 27.7, 29.2, 31.2, 25.2, 33.7] |
| 50% to 100% |
3 [80.8, 55.4, 70.4] |
| 100% to 200% |
1 [168.2] |
| 200%+ |
0 [] |
History of gap up moves (prior close to next day open):
| 5% to 10% |
2 [8.1, 7.4] |
| 10% to 20% |
2 [12.6, 19.0] |
| 20% + |
2 [24.9, 35.1] |
Given a gap up (n=6), statistically the stock closes:
| +10% or better |
33.3% |
| +5% to +10% |
16.7% |
| unch (+/- 5%) |
16.7% |
| -5% to -10% |
16.7% |
| -10% or worse |
16.7% |
Given a +10% day (n=9), vs day 1 close, the 2nd day will open:
| Higher and close green |
22.2% |
| Lower and close green |
0.0% |
| Higher and close red |
22.2% |
| Lower and close red |
55.6% |
Holistic spikability score: 3.0 / 10
Catalyst
Immunic, Inc. to Present Previously Unpublished Data Regarding Lead Program, IMU-838, at the GI Inflammatory Diseases Summit in Boston
Price Action
If you ignore everything before September then the chart doesn't look too bad. Slow ramp after 1 PM looks like it could have been pumped.
Statistical Prediction
Odds point towards this one closing lower on the 2nd day, but there is a history of big HOD moves to work with.
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