Today was a SIGNIFICANTLY more disciplined day for me.  Even though I ended up down $47 on the day, MUCH better than $400+ loss yesterday.  I was much more disciplined today with my stop limits and position size.  Happy to have been more disciplined - just need to keep it up, and the profits will come back.

Tim's mention in his watch list today about morning spikers and pre-market gainers sometimes not holding gains for long (for instance only seconds today for CAPN and FATE before sharp drops) got me thinking to look at a few stocks to do some analysis to improve the odds of success in trading in future days.  Tim mentioned in one of his DVDs that today's price action is a good indicator of tomorrow, and his whole system of trading is based on patterns, so I thought I would see if there were any patterns this week.

Wednesday, 27 Jan 2016

$CAPN - up big premarket; good news catalyst; dropped from 1.79 open to 1.63 in first 20 min; closed day at 1.51

$FATE - up big premarket; good news catalyst; opened @ 2.9 and spiked to 3.08 for seconds before dropping to 2.75 by 9:31; closed at 2.19

$TRXC -up premarket 19%; opened at 2.60; choppy on day and closed at 2.65

Tuesday, 26 Jan 2016

$CRK - Up 24% premarket; positive news; opened at 1.16, spiked to 1.47 to 10:35 with a very slight dip at 10:15; closed at 1.69

$VNR - up 20% premarket; good early tender news; opened at 1.79, spiked to 2.02 until 10:15 and closed at 1.94

$CETX - up 15% premarket; new orders of $8M; closed 2.25 day prior; open @ 2.61; down to 2.50 by 9:31; close at 2.28; up and down on day

Monday, 25 Jan 2016

$AFMD - up 27% premarket; news of clinical research with Merck & Co; previous close 3.70; open at 4.68; @4.31 by 9:35; closed at 4.0

$NXTD - up 13% premarket; new smart wallet news; previous close 0.79; open @ 0.88, up to 1.06 until 10:00

Lessons and Strategy for Me for Rest of the Week (available for others to use if you so choose - no guarantees of success)

Stocks like $CAPN, $FATE, $CETX and $AFMD were all premarket gainers, but all had significant drops by 9:35 (or 9:31) and closed well below open on the day

Stocks like $CRK, $VNR and $NXTD were all premarket gainers, and they spiked until 10, 10:15, or even 10:35, and all closed well above the open on the day

So ... the pattern I see is to wait until 9:35 to trade either way with premarket % gainers.  If the stock is still increasing at 9:35 or 9:40, chances are it will continue to increase until 10 or 10:15, and I'll look to buy.  If the premarket gainer stock has dropped in value from the open in the first 5 minutes, then it is most likely to be a failed spike or unable to hold premarket gains, so better play is to short.  That will be my strategy for tomorrow and Friday.  I'll post another blog to let the group know how it goes.  Good evening to all and wishing everyone smart and profitable trades!