In this post, I will analyze and break down TLSS OTC Multiday Breakout setup, my trades on it, particularly my swing trade, explain my thoughts throughout the trade, my mistakes and most importantly, lessons learned. Furthermore, I want to say that it was my best-executed trade ever, not $ vise but trading and learning vise. 

First, I want to talk about my first trade on TLSS when I had a very early entry but managed it poorly, which made me wiser for the next day.

It all started on 9/27 early in the morning when I saw TLSS morning PA and immediately knew it was my play as I recognized the clean trigger at 0.021. The daily chart looked really clean for a potential multiday breakout, but unfortunately, I did not have a big picture trade mindset at that time. I saw the small breakout level of 0.0219, and I did see 0.0257, but I did not have experience and knowledge of playing these for a big move. So when I saw the trigger at 0.021, I prepared my 0.0212 limit, and as soon as it perked, I got in at 0.0212. However, when I counted share size, I used LOD at 0.0206 as my risk, but it wasn't the right risk since it was probably just a few prints, and it didn't have much volume. The correct risk was 0.0208, the low of that consolidation, so I wasn’t using full size, but it does not really matter. Right after my entry, it spiked to 0.0215 and then had a pretty strong push to the high 0.022s, and I sold 1/3. So looking at this now, I definitely understand that I shouldn't have sold if I had a big picture in my mind. I treated this trade as a single even though daily charts showed the opposite. I treated this morning's action like a simple FGD. After my first sell, I held through that dip to 0.022, and when it was consolidating near 0.023, I decided to move my risk to 0.022, which was a HUGE mistake. However, at the moment, I thought I did the right thing because I saw it bounced off that level and held up above, but I did not realize the fact that it was way too early to move my risk. 0.022 was just a level it bounced off one time. It wasn’t a level the stock held for an hour, so moving my risk that early to that level was clearly a mistake. After it tried to break HOD and failed to do so, it had a sudden drop which broke my new risk, and I sold 2nd 1/3. So after that moment, I was lost and did not know what to do. I sold 2/3 of my position, so I thought I might as well hold the last piece, but I did not know which level to risk. Yes, I did not even consider using my first risk level at 0.0208. When it dropped to 0.0212 and tried to bounce, I decided to sell it if it broke 0.0212 as it was very weak. An absolutely random level on the chart, completely taken out of my head. When it was broken, I sold at 0.0211 and DOWNTICKED it… Right away, it bounced and never came back. The 0.021 level 1. was a trigger level from the morning. 2. was a g/r level, 3. had a huge wall of bidders, but I sold too quickly to spot them. But I shouldn’t have even cared about all this because my risk should have been 0.0208, just like when I first got in. There was no reason to move my risk too early, and if I had a big picture in my mind, I would have known it. TLSS was a potential big breakout over 0.0257, so ALL I had to do was determine a clean risk level, which I did, and just stick to it, which I didn’t because of my approach to the stock from the beginning. Overall, I had a small gain, but I learned a very valuable lesson of not moving risk too early. Also, I knew I had to switch my mindset and develop a new big-picture mindset. I was not sad or discouraged that day because I knew that I did a great job of recognizing the morning trigger, and my entry was the best; I just made a mistake due to the lack of knowledge for this particular setup. In other words, on 9/27/21, I learned and developed a new approach for big picture moves. 

Chart Analysis of my TLSS trade on 9/27/21

So that day, TLSS closed right at the HOD, so coming into the next day, it was my main watch because I already recognized and realized the full potential, and I had the right mindset to trade it. 

Day 1

On 9/28, TLSS had a nice gap up to 0.024, and when I saw that it couldn’t break 0.024 for the first few minutes, I immediately knew it was the trigger. It dipped to 0.0235 and was consolidating in between, so I knew that 0.0235 was my risk level that I would hold no matter what and would not move up unless TLSS told me to. It started to bounce from 0.0235 to 0.0237 and 0.0238, so I stared at level 2 with my mouse ready to click on “buy” on my 0.0241 limit. My plan was to buy off that trigger risking LOD with the idea of holding overnight for a big picture breakout. At 9:51, I saw how the wall at 0.024 started to lift up with fewer and fewer sellers, and the tape showed many prints at 0.024, so when the right moment was on, I pulled the trigger and got in at 0.02395, which turned out to be before the actual break with the risk on 0.0235 (2%). I did it because I knew that the moment it broke 0.024, it would move up so quickly to like 0.0242, so I wanted to be sure I could get in; I had experience with missed entries because I waited for the break and missed fills. So after I got in, it did not actually break 0.024 and continued consolidating right there. After 15 minutes, it finally did break 0.024 but with almost no volume. It spiked to 0.0245 and then to 0.025 but did not really have a big push, which I was okay with because now I was playing the big picture, and I knew that the confirmation was there; all I had to do was stick to my 0.0235 risk. I had no legal right to sell before it. All day it was slowly grinding above VWAP, yes it broke it once, but overall it was pretty healthy PA until we approached EOD, and it started to get volume. At 13:57, it made a NHOD and spiked to the high of 0.0279. I did not have a single thought about selling even though at that moment, my R/R was 1:8. My initial plan was to swing, so I was following it. TLSS had a nice push into the close and closed at 0.028, and I swung full size from 0.02395. 

Why I had the conviction to hold for the big picture move:

1. Market environment and recent big breakouts (ILUS, TGGI, CYBL)

2. Clean “A” Multiday Breakout setup by itself

3. Clean trigger entries with clean risk levels

4. No overhead resistance until about 80% from the B/O level (enough room to spike)

Day 2

The next day on 9/29, my plan was to add since I wasn’t in full size if it had another morning trigger. However, at the open, it started to panic, but I was okay with it because my risk was still 0.02395, as I learned from my first trade on TLSS. When I had the panic, I thought about adding at around 0.026 and 0.027, but when calculating potential position size, I was using 0.02395 as my risk, which was wrong. I did not react quickly enough, and it bounced from 0.0262 and broke the opening price. My mistake was that I wanted to use the same risk level on my add that I was using for my core position. I learned that you need to have a separate new risk level for an add in most cases because it is not really reasonable to risk all the way down when you can just add lower later. Therefore, in that specific moment, when TLSS bounced, I should have risked LOD at 0.0262 on my add. It wasn’t a big deal though, that I did not add, but I was very happy to learn another lesson. After it broke HOD and it then broke 0.03 level and just started to speed up big time. Honestly, I would have preferred it to calm down and consolidate for a nice EOD move rather than pushing in the morning, but all I had to do was to react. When it broke 0.03 and reached 0.032, I decided to lock in at least 1/3 there, and that’s what I did. My first sell was at 0.032, which was at 17R from my entry, which was just crazy to think about. I thought we would calm down, but TLSS had no chills. It spiked more, and when it went above 0.034, I sold about 17% of my position at 0.0345 so overall, I locked in half of my original position there. My second sell was at 0.0345, almost top ticked the HOD, which meant 23R... yes, Twenty Three Reward from my entry, madness. At that time, I was chatting with my trading friends; they were all surprised about my patience and how I still kept half of my position for more when I was up 23R. In highlight, it is easy to say that I should have sold all at 0.0345, but that’s not how trading works. I had my thesis, and even though I was up big, my full goal wasn't reached yet. I expected a bigger move because of the market environment and overall big picture of TLSS’s chart. In addition, when it made that nice move to 0.0345, it wasn’t a huge exhaustion move at all, it was just good strong grinding action, so it was reasonable to expect a big volume push later that day or week. So after my two literally perfect sells, I just let it do its thing. Also, I moved my risk to 0.0262 LOD at that time as I really thought now it shouldn’t break LOD for my thesis to work. After the high at 0.0347 it dropped, and I really wanted it to have a swizzle at around 0.032/0.033 for EOD move, but it dropped more and closed not so strong at 0.03, and I swung 1/2 of my position. Now coming into the next day, I wasn’t expecting a huge move breaking yesterday’s highs as I knew that TLSS just had the first move and now needed to consolidate for a while before the second move like all the breakouts do.

Day 3

On 9/30, TLSS had a small gap but acted weak at the open. It broke LOD and dropped more, but I was very comfortable since my risk was at 0.0262. However, the more it dropped, the less sure I was about my risk level. I asked other traders, and they said they expect TLSS to be weak, and test breakout level which was at 0.0257 and I was also told that since I already locked in half into a big push, I should be risking 0.024 because the stock will try to shake out people and those with early entries would survive. Therefore I decided to risk 0.024, my entry since I had already locked in half, so in the worst case, I’m up a decent amount, and in the best case, I hit a home run. TLSS had a red day and closed at 0.0267. I really did not have any expectation going into Friday, my only goal was for it to hold 0.024, and if it didn’t, I would be out without a doubt. 

Day 4

On 10/01, right at the open, it panicked. It went past 0.026, then 0.0255, tried to bounce off 0.0242 but then finally broke 0.024, and I was all out. TLSS did not hold half the spike and breakout level, so it's never a bad decision to cut it when the stock doesn’t do what it should. It eventually bounced off 0.0221 and closed at 0.027. Very weird, but I’m keeping on watch for the breakout next week. I was sad, not going to lie, but at the same I was very satisfied because I followed my plan perfectly and executed it very well. I’m most proud of my first two sells as they are just beautiful. Overall on this trade, my R/R was almost 1:10, which is crazy. Overall on TLSS throughout the whole move, I made $114.13 in 2 trades. This trade still feels unbelievable for me because I always strived to this trading style with patience and a big picture mindset. I would say this trade was my best-executed trade ever. It was my first of the many upcoming swing breakout trades! In addition, since I covered my full position on October 1st, I’m counting this trade towards October, so amazing start of the month for me, and so excited for more of these setups!

Final Results:

TLSS OTC Breakout A setup (3 day swing)
Entry: $0.02395
Average Exit: $0.02837 (best sell $0.0345)
Initial risk level: $0.0235 ($9)
% gain: 18.44%
$ gain: $88.34
R/R: 1:9.8

Full TLSS Swing Chart Analysis

Lessons:

1. Have a main risk level for your core position

When getting early in potential big picture moves, such as breakouts, you should always determine a clear risk level for your first early entry. You should stick to that level even when the stock makes that first move and there seems to be another risk level. The reason is that on big picture moves, the stock may have hard pulls after the first push, so sticking to your initial will not only be comfortable since you’re already up on a trade, but it also gives the stock more time. 

2. Do not move your risk too early

You should not move your risk up just because the stock has been above a certain level. The real risk level should be a support level based on the area where it had consolidation at/around it. 

When the stock makes the first move, move your risk up only when:

• The stock breaks to new highs (not always, it depends on the situation)

• It holds some level until EOD/for a while and makes a higher high

• Let the chart tell you it set a new risk

3. Core Position vs Adds

When you build in a position, you should have a solid risk for your core position. Usually, when you want to add, it’s better to risk a new level specifically for the adds and not the same as for your core position. Why add and risk all the way down if you can just cut and add lower. 

• Treat core position and adds as two separate trades

• Would you have taken that add as your first entry if you did not have shares from earlier? 

• If the answer is no, then it’s better not to add.

4. It’s important to lock in along the way

When the stock makes that big push while your thesis is a bigger move, it is very important to lock in some of your position. The reason is that when you sell 1/2 or 1/3 into a big push, almost always, your trade becomes a win or win situation. Not only will all the emotions be gone, but you will also know that you still have a relatively small gain in the worst case. In addition, when you lock in some, you may consider risking your entry because if and when the next push happens, you will make 2-3x of the amount you were risking at your entry, so you need to be willing to give back some profits for potentially way bigger profits. 

Final Thoughts

This trade showed me that I’ve really improved on my trading since summer. I’m so proud and happy that I’m finally starting to see some progress not only in my mind but also on paper. My executions are getting better every day. On that day, when I sold half of my position and just took a minute to analyze what I did, I just said to myself, “wow, it is unbelievable,” because I was just amazed by my patience and how I scaled out into that push. I really believe this trade and this month definitely sparked something in my trading, and I feel like I’m getting it! Super excited for the future and October, which started the best way possible for me. I learned so much from TLSS, so I can’t wait to use all this new knowledge for the next one!

 Cheers