The markets never like uncertainty and the unknown. And with polls close (though Clinton is 65% favorite to win) it will continue to be weak then next two days. If Trump wins, expect markets to get hammered. If Clinton wins, it may just be biotechs that continue down. The SPX and NDX have now been down 9 days in a row, an event that hasn't happened in over 35 years. Furthermore, this has only occurred 22 times in history before and every time markets were up strongly in the next 1-3 months. NDX is currently right at support. But if it breaks through that then look for another 100 point drop. SPX is much the same, but if support breaks look for 40 point drop. Maybe it would be best if the market did capitulate and spike down to get the uncertainty over with as economics don't support much more of a decline. In fact, this is the 3-5% correction I was calling for back in August/September. Look for stocks that are strong in this down trend to be the first ones to explode on the market rebound. The secular bull market is still in place.
Even though the rest of the markets are off, Dow Transportation is not confirming the move. It has been up the last 3 days in a row. This is not an indicator that the end of the free world is nigh. Transportation is one of the key indicators of the economy and it is not saying it is bad.
The Russell 2000 also is at support right now. But if it fails it could go substantially lower. The biotech ETFs (BIB, LABU)) have come down to support (triple bottom) back from February 2016. But both ETFs on FRiday (in a bad market) rallied. LABU was up 9% on the day. A pull back reversal like that usually points to a snap back rally. But be cautious, we need follow through, otherwise it is just a dead cat bounce.
Gold had made a big move up from the bottoms at the beginning of this year topping out in July. It has been in a down trending channel since then. But, in October it bounced of support and now has filled the gap and trading right at resistance. I wouldn't be surprised to see gold break through this resistance level and trade much higher from here. The caveat is that the Gold ETFs are not confirming the gold move. They look like they may be starting the 5th wave of a 5 wave down pattern. On gold, we could be at an inflection point right now. If it is the start of the 5th wave, there will be some amazing buying opportunities coming up like there was last February. If you are trading NUGT, then you want to set a stop loss at $14.00. Stay tuned.
Oil continues to be weak but it is coming close to support. It has broken the trend line but is trading at support. Oil is too hard to call right now where the market is going.
Longs:
AMKR: Very strong chart in the down market. Stocks like this will rocket on a reversal. It recently traded as high as $10.80 and has an orderly retracement the last 3 days closing at $10.43. I would look to go long over $10.80 with a price target of $12.50 and then $16.00. Shorts 3.5 days to cover.
AXDX: Huge reversal and bullish engulfing candle on this stock on Friday. It has trade right up against resistance $22.50. But a break through that resistance on a rising market and this stock makes a quick move to $25.50. Shorts, 23.6 days to cover.
BCOR: The stock continues to remain strong, trading sideways over the last week, making a nominal new high. It does trad with th e$.05 spread so hard to trade and maybe not that volatile. But for a swing trade, I would look to go long above $13.50 with a price target of $14.50 and $16.50. Shorts 6.4 days to cover.
BVX: Stock has recently made a double top at $5.80ish and is trading at the lower edge of its rising channel line. I would look to go long above the recent highs with a price target of $7.00 and then $8.00.
CARA: Stock reversed in the last two days from a big downside drop to $5.90 back to resistance at $7.30. If the markets reverse and this stock gets through $7.30, then $9.00 is my target.
CLD: Strong junior oil with good momentum. Stock is near the top edge of its up trending channel. I would look to go long over $6.80. First target is $7.50 and then $8.50.
HDSN: Stock has pulled back and bounced off of support. Friday, it had an inside day closing at $6.28. I would look to go long over $7.00 with targets of $8.00 and $9.00.
LNTH: This stock has a very strong chart in a long term up trending channel. It is trading right at the lower edge of the channel. It has formed a triple top at $10.00. I would look to go long over $10.00 with a price target of $13.50.
NAV: Truck manufacturing stock showing great strength in this market. It keeps trading up against resistance at $24.00 in a long term up trending channel and has been consolidating the last 3 weeks. I would look to go long this stock over $24.00 with a price target $10 higher at $34.00. Shorts, 7.75 days to cover. This short position could a dd a lot of momentum to the trade if it breaks above resistance.
SQ: Stock has been consolidating the last 3 months and is now trading up at the resistance level. It has been up strong the last 3 days. I would look to go long over $12.50 with a price target of $15.75. Shorts, 6.5 days to cover.
TTMI: Stock is trading near the top of its up trending channel. But it has broken out to the upside. It may consolidate in here for a few more days, but a break above $14.01 and I have a price target of $15.50 and $18.00. Shorts, 5 days to cover.
WIFI: Stock is in a long term up ternding channel. On Friday, it spiked off the lower limit of the channel breaking through resistance at $10.50 closing at $10.71. I would look to go long this stock over $10.90 with a price target of $12.00. Shorts, 14 days to cover.
Shorts:
ACAD: Very weak biotech chart. It has been collapsing the last month and doesn't seem to be finding any support. It could rally to $25.00 if biotechs recovery. But I would look to go short below $21.00 with $16.00 as my target.
GIII: I continue to hold my swing short on this stock from $28.18. I would look to short below $25.72 with $22.00 as my price target. Shorts, 10.4 days to cover.
NHTC: Stock has broken below support at $25.50 trading now in the $21.50. If it breaks below $21.35 I would look to go short with a price target of $17.00 and then $9.00. Shorts, 25 days to cover.
It's going to be crazy but 'crazy' is what we trade sometimes. We've been told to sell into strength about 12,693,430,491 times so when we are told the 12,693,430,492nd time it will more than likely hold true again for the week ahead. Thanks for the post.
Thanks for all of the information and insight. Greatly appreciated!
Bob, Did you have chance to review ADPT - still one of the big boys dropped almost to 1/3rd of the price. As you mentioned, any reversal this has a lot of gap upside to fill. Thanks for the watchlist again :)
Maybe over $9.15 with a move to $12.00. But the big drop was earnings releated not market related so it will take time for it to consoldiate and recover.
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