The markets never like uncertainty and the unknown. And with polls close (though Clinton is 65% favorite to win) it will continue to be weak then next two days. If Trump wins, expect markets to get hammered. If Clinton wins, it may just be biotechs that continue down. The SPX and NDX have now been down 9 days in a row, an event that hasn't happened in over 35 years. Furthermore, this has only occurred 22 times in history before and every time markets were up strongly in the next 1-3 months. NDX is currently right at support. But if it breaks through that then look for another 100 point drop. SPX is much the same, but if support breaks look for 40 point drop. Maybe it would be best if the market did capitulate and spike down to get the uncertainty over with as economics don't support much more of a decline. In fact, this is the 3-5% correction I was calling for back in August/September. Look for stocks that are strong in this down trend to be the first ones to explode on the market rebound. The secular bull market is still in place.
Even though the rest of the markets are off, Dow Transportation is not confirming the move. It has been up the last 3 days in a row. This is not an indicator that the end of the free world is nigh. Transportation is one of the key indicators of the economy and it is not saying it is bad.
The Russell 2000 also is at support right now. But if it fails it could go substantially lower. The biotech ETFs (BIB, LABU)) have come down to support (triple bottom) back from February 2016. But both ETFs on FRiday (in a bad market) rallied. LABU was up 9% on the day. A pull back reversal like that usually points to a snap back rally. But be cautious, we need follow through, otherwise it is just a dead cat bounce.
Gold had made a big move up from the bottoms at the beginning of this year topping out in July. It has been in a down trending channel since then. But, in October it bounced of support and now has filled the gap and trading right at resistance. I wouldn't be surprised to see gold break through this resistance level and trade much higher from here. The caveat is that the Gold ETFs are not confirming the gold move. They look like they may be starting the 5th wave of a 5 wave down pattern. On gold, we could be at an inflection point right now. If it is the start of the 5th wave, there will be some amazing buying opportunities coming up like there was last February. If you are trading NUGT, then you want to set a stop loss at $14.00. Stay tuned.
Oil continues to be weak but it is coming close to support. It has broken the trend line but is trading at support. Oil is too hard to call right now where the market is going.
Mafia - Exactly, don't fight the tape. I have been far more short biased in my trading with SPX and NDX down 9 days in a row. Doesn;t matter to me if I sell first and buy later or buy first and sell later.
The SPY gapped up bouncing off the 200MA yet stocks are still not moving today :(
It is all the big names that move first. It takes a while for it to filter down.
The weed stocks are back in action though!!!
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