ProfBongwater

@Bullionaire Well, short interest, I occasionally look at short interest but I tend to ignore it and rely on what the charts are telling me. That chart is the finger on the pulse of the idiots that drive the markets up, down or sideways. In short, attempting to explain how and why the herd moves the way it moves is more the realm of game theory. Remember to that a short squeeze doesn't happen until the pain becomes unbearable. Why traders hold onto losing positions is why 98% of traders blow their accounts up and disappear. I also ignore fundamentals (Tesla should be trading at around $0.30 per share). As you've seen yourself the herd runs from good news and piles in like Lemmings when the news is bad. All I care about is price, volume, Bollinger bands, RSI, MACD and how the tape is ticking. I've made a good lick over the past month trading VGGL. Looking at the fundamentals it should trade in the $0.05 to $0.20 range but it's been holding steady over three bucks over the last week or so (good earnings report on a company that bleeds cash- I scratch my head too). I heard one guy explain it this way- most traders panic and sell at the bottom to turn around and buy exuberantly at the top. Truer words were never spoken. Ignore the analysts, ignore the ratings, ignore the fundamentals. Watch but don't trade news until you see with your own eyes that the herd has taken note and acted as anticipated (most times news is anticipated and priced into the markets already). But, and it's a big but, if your chart tells you to watch but not trade, sit it out. There will be other trades and the old adage that he who fights and runs away lives to fight another day keeps the dollars in YOUR account. Let the trades come to you. I think this is what burns more people than stupidity, trading for trading's sake. If you don't see a set up you like- walk and don't look back. I watch the first 90 minutes of the trading day. If I trade I trade. But, many are the days that I watch, don't see any set ups I like and go find something else to do the rest of the day. I'm not wired to sit glued to a computer screen all day waiting for a set up to develop. Look at the stats and you'll see that most of the trading happens the first and last hour of the day. I'll admit I've missed a few "last hour" trades where I should have taken a position for the market open the next day but it doesn't cost me any lost sleep. I trade the way I enjoy trading. If I didn't I wouldn't be at this very long. Find what's right for you. Guru's can give you the tools but it's up to you to decide what you want to build and how you build it. Looks to me like you're doing really well. Learn to tune the noise out. Focus on price action, volume, your indicators and the tape. The A-hole market makes can play games with the bid and ask but they can't doctor the tape.

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Bullionaire

@ProfBongwater It's not fun to miss good opportunities but at least you're still happy. The paper trading is going well but it's just not so easy with real money. The confidence isn't there yet but if I can trade successfully over time with paper then eventually I'll get it. I was watching PTX today. The stock went up and is kind of consolidating near the high end. I wanted to ask an experienced trader what they thought about the short interest of 44% on that stock. I was thinking that a lot of shorts are stuck in there seeing that it went up so much and pretty much stayed near the top. Do you think being a Friday, that there will be a short squeeze? Would it be worth buying it for that reason if it continues to hover near the top until near the close?

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Bullionaire

@ProfBongwater I think all of us can learn more and I'm no different. I still feel like I have been lucky but also still make dumb uneducated moves. I can use lots of pointers. Sounds like you have figured out what works for you. I work on strategies that work and then they don't work suddenly. I've only been trading Tim's way since December. I am a newbie so I still need to learn a lot. I went to look up Conner on this website and I don't think you can even follow him on here. How do you contact him? Thanks.

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ProfBongwater

@Bullionaire I'd have to agree with you on Connor, he's got it going on. Trading wise, I started with futures back in '96. I got married in '95 and about the same time I got into the trading seriously the wife started acting weird. Long story short she ended up diagnosed with schizophrenia (thus began a five year nightmare). The trading went on the back burner until 2002 when I got interested in penny stocks (don't we all start there). I did that somewhat successfully for a couple of years then got married again only this time with a house full of kids. Trading went on the back burner again. I was to busy to give it much thought until last year when I ended up with to much time on my hands and decided to get into it again. I decided that I needed to know more than I had learned about charts and trading in general plus I've always had the belief that it's stupid to reinvent the wheel. Time to find someone to actually learn from. From all of this past year I learned, with the penny's at least, that I had been extremely lucky in my trading. Made money trading as a complete igmo. Which you can do if you're patient and always trade like you were about to lose your lunch money. The learning has been intense (old geezer with not much else to do) but these days I feel like, for the first time really, I understand what's going on in the markets. A lot of what you see happening defies logic but you learn quickly that the markets aren't logical and if you try to trade them logically they'll have you for lunch. The stock market has always intrigued me and I guess I picked the worst time to get back in (economic meltdown just around the corner). But, I keep an eye on how much I leave in the brokerage to make sure that if I get a Corzine haircut it's not that bad. I'm in a great position to trade these days. The farm we live on and everything else is paid off so I can afford to play a little. I've enjoyed the learning process and it's an added benefit to be able to watch the talking heads on MSNBC or FOX or wherever and know that they're either shills or just plain idiots. Wow, time to knock this off before I write a book. Look into Connor, he may be able to help you out (not that it looks like you need any- nice stats). Good hunting!

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Bullionaire

@ProfBongwater Connor Bruggeman sounds like a little genius. I could probably learn a lot from him. It sounds like he has a really good idea of using his smart phone. How long have you been trading? You have a lot of good ideas.

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Bullionaire

@ProfBongwater Yeah. The fees are very high. I used to pay $25 each way for trades so when it went to $10 I thought it was good deal. There are more options in the US for brokers. I want to keep most of my trading in tax free savings account because it's tax free that way. I don't think I can hold that kind of an account outside Canada. I didn't realized there were problems with STT. I'm sure Tim will eventually figure out a good solution. Thanks for the tips.

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ProfBongwater

@Bullionaire You know, after I reread your post I'll back up and say that all you need is a good discount brokerage. The STT is a great way to do your scans but "as is" it's not much to trade from. It will interface with some brokerages but not all. Charts are ok but not much more. I got word this week that Tim dumped Equityfeed as a data provider so things are in flux at the moment with STT. Tim says that when the dust settles it will all be better than before so at that time it may work as a trading platform. I've long wondered why Tim didn't start his own brokerage and, who knows, that may be what he's doing. If I liked money as much as he does that's what I'd do. Look at what he's leaving on the table for the brokerages. I got two emails from Equityfeed this week informing me that with the STT and Equityfeed split I was now an Equityfeed customer. I went "WTF"! I forwarded the email to Profit.ly for some clarification as to who I'm actually paying and for what. Haven't heard back yet but it looks like Equityfeed is trying to steal some business on their way out the door. I just checked out your stats, you're doing good girl! Keep up the good work. I imagine when Tim gets the STT straightened out he'll give everybody a peak. If not and it turns out to be "all that and a bag of chips" I'll give you a heads up. For now you just need to whittle down those commissions. If you're a very active trader you'll faint when you see what you're forking out in commissions annually. And that's with a discount broker. You keep forking out $10 bucks a trade and you'll freak when you see what you gave the bank.

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ProfBongwater

@Bullionaire I use MB Trading and their Desktop Pro software. Not as nice as ToS or Etrade but it gets the job done plus they have shares to short. Why aren't you using a brokerage to get the commissions down? I pay $4 and change plus.$.003 a share per trade. Round trip for under $10 bucks. If I traded more I could get it down even more. If you're doing a/h and p/m you should check into Connor Bruggeman and his Connor Alerts. He trades full time from high school on a smart phone. He'll point you at the apps you'd need and presto, you're a full time trader even if you have to head for the bathroom to keep score. If you're already used to the "set it and forget it" style of trading using a smart phone could move you into the "full time" category and you get to keep your job or school or whatever keeps you busy during the day. I don't mean to preach but you really ought to find a brokerage that can get those commissions down. If you're very active in the markets you'll faint when you see what you're forking out annually in commissions. And that's at a discount brokerage. ETrade has to pay for those Superbowl commercials some way, right?

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