When I say "market" 'm referring to any given ticker symbol here.
In the chat room during the pre-market and right at the open there are a LOT of people that are buying when the market is taking off to grab a few cents or just jump in and hang on. Sometimes the market gives you some quick money, sometimes a lot, and other times you see the price action do a 180 and start to tank within the same bar. I started here in December and I think I have taken one pre-market trade...just because. There is the open spike, the pause, the 180....the tank. I saw what was going on and exited with a quick "commission only" loss. That was my only pre-market trade to date. For me trading that morning spike is just too damn risky. We never, never hear Tim buying (trading) in this fashion. He only sells the failed spikes here or exits from the day's entry before.
I have to ask myself..."Is this type of buying the pre-market or opening spike trading or is it simply gambling? Can you trade this way full time? Is this how 'it's' done?" No, I didn't get burned badly by trying to jump on one of these trades I'm just trying to analyze this type of trading. My answer to these questions are simply...yes it's gambling. No, you can't trade this way full time. No, this is not how it's done.
The quick and easy money on the opening is a good lure for those just getting started and if it works they think they have it all figured out....until they lose that entire gain on the next day's spike. Again, you never hear Tim trading this way and he is one of the most successful traders I have 'seen' after being involved in the markets one way or another for the past 15 years or so.
For me seeing an entry point area in a bull/bear trend is simple...spot the weakness and wait for the buying or selling to show up again and get in. The difficult part is actually finding that ticker that is trending...correctly. There is a lot of talk in the chat room such as "" is spiking or "" starting to move or "" trending well. You go look at those markets and you see that price jumped a few cents on "" or the trend in "" has already moved 50% or so and has now stalled. I think the best entry for any trend is to spot it early and and get in on the first dip. Other times you see some symbol that someone mentioned "" looking good and in the back of my head I'm just thinking that someone bought/sold this symbol and it simply isn't moving and they are hoping someone in the chat room will think the same way, buy or sell, and try to get it to move. Trading those symbols that have the volume and that are part of the chat room noise is important.
A lot of people in the chat room do not have the profit/loss displayed with their name. Some have good and respectable results, some are still learning (negative), and some might chose to hide it. I am sure there are plenty that have it hidden because they either simply chose not to disclose, they are making great money and don't want to be bothered with "How are yo doing it?" or have simply lost too much and don't want anyone to know about it. Whatever the reason that's their choosing. Sometimes I get lazy about updating my trades. The last few days I just been kind of busy and just haven't seen anything that merits an entry so I either just study the Level 2 quotes and price or just shut down the trading platform.
We all want to do this for either extra positive cash flow, second job, home based 'business', or probably the ultimate....Leave your current job and make in a week or two what you made every month or so at your previous job and give yourself financial freedom to do whatever the hell you want to do. That, in my opinion, is probably the main reason we are all here.
But, this can be a very difficult job. Can you trade that opening (or pre-market) spike consistently Monday through Friday and pay your mortgage, car payment, health insurance, retirement plan, save for your kids college, groceries, vacation, etc., etc., etc.? I don't think so.
$NUGN this past week was one of the best examples of Tim's methods for making bank on a hype stock that we have seen, or I have seen in the past several months. There was one day of just barely enough weakness to think "this may be the top" and the following day of more selling then green to red and there it goes. Perfect textbook example about how to get this done. How to make bank on the hype. How to sell short per some of Tim's best "DVD examples". But, how often did this textbook example happen in the past few months? Not much. There are opportunities to short stocks every day or week and they do give up a good 15% or more part of the move which is FANTASTIC but, you have to find them, watch them, and enter CORRECTLY. By correctly I mean if you are too soon on the entry to cut your losses short (Rule #1) and then try again, make up for that initial loss and then still make enough to bank some.
It takes patience to find and spot that correct entry....Patience.
Yes there are those opening failed spikes to short and I am just now not to 'see them' but to understand them....the pre-market move, then the opening failure at that pre-market high area, here comes the selling and then the drop. I'm going to give myself some more time with these failed spikes before I decide to trade them as part of my plan.
Doing all of this successfully day after day, week after week, month after month, and year after year is not easy. Oddly enough I am getting better and spotting weakness in a long entry and getting out at the correct time to see the market stall or start to drop but not drop enough that tell me to go short. In other words I am cutting my losses correctly. I have exited too soon sometimes only to see the market take off in my original direction but what I have done is simply take a smaller initial position to give my 'mental stop' a little more room to work. This is the easy part. The difficult part is finding those tickers that are trending well enough to get in on a dip and not just enter because there might be the first little sign of buying volume showing up..that's not enough. For me, that's not enough.
This is a difficult but rewarding way to make money if you take the time to learn as much as you can and have the PATIENCE to wait for the best set-ups. It can be difficult to see a symbol mentioned in the chat room, go to the chart, and NOT get distracted from your plan. I think one key to success is to do your research, find those symbols that YOU think fit YOUR criteria and stick to YOUR plan. Yes, people give great advice in the chat room and they do mention some good tickers but I think YOU have to have YOUR game plan in place before you go to that chat room symbol. Tim is so right when he says if nothing looks good to you...DON'T TRADE. You learn nothing from a "let's just see what happens here" type of trade.
Some people find success in the first week or month. Some in a year. Some never. I think it could be like being a professional golfer or NFL quarterback also...you wanted it from age 5 and you worked at it every chance you had. It's not easy but practice, practice, practice.
The dream of trading successfully has always been part of my plan. The reality of making it happen will take time. So, it might be only a $30, $50, or $86 gain for now (even not being under the PDT rule) but when the % of being correct on those entries versus being a "Why the hell did you enter here?" here result is at a respectable level, then those $30, $50, or $86 trades will become $100, $300, or $500 winners...consistently.
Time holds all the cards...
Thanks back to everyone. I think of myself as a giver and if I can help kickstart someone somehow in the right direction I'm gonna do it. So true deb...never going to be corect 100% but understanding the risk, patterns, etc. help make those losses simple foul balls and not the more embarrassing event of being picked off at first base followed by the walk of shame back to the dugout...that's never cool ;)
Thank you, good advice in here. More positive reinforcement
GREAT POST!
Well said, patience will bring consistency but we all know it is sometimes hard to be as patient as we intend. Great post - thx
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