WEEK 1: Sell $AKRX either before or after earnings (Current Position is 38 shares @ $42.50 PPS)... made a perfect prediction that it'd bounce off of a low of around $41.50 on Thursday, but was tied up in $GILD at the time.
A lot of silly accounting errors and sketchy options executions by the company's leadership has severely tanked the company's PPS, but I believe that they're operationally just fine, and should provide stellar earnings and guidance. I have loved this company since back when it was $7 in 2011. One of the few companies I consistently watch and "know" right now. Going for contrarian long plays has worked out, as can be seen in my trading history :). Thinking of setting up a stop-loss, however, for a second serious dip is possible.... HOWEVER, I do think that it's already experienced its dead-cat bounce after selling off.
WEEK 1/2: Dig into, keep tabs, and possibly buy $RCAP. BIG insider buy ahead of ER of over $4.5 million! I can't say much on this, as I have yet to do my proper DD, but this co. intrigues me enough to consider shifting out of $AKRX early.
WEEK 3/4: Keep digging into and wait for a solid entry into $BIOC after I sell $AKRX (and possibly RCAP). Small biotech that has begun operations and will be reporting earnings with its first significant revenue from what I understand. This should continue to run flat and shaky until then, so I'll be tracking its pivots.... $2.25 is an ideal entry, but I'll take $2.50 if it refuses to go lower. If I can't get a good entry price, I may just buy whatever the hell its priced at before earnings. I don't foresee a fear-driven sell off like there was with $GILD ahead of its ER, but I really do need to learn to keep this in mind when finding positions ahead of earnings.
Time will tell on this one and if I can get a good dip-entry price. The spike-ability and genuine growth prospects are interesting with $BIOC. Good revenue and good guidance will get this hyped to the max... already some hype brewing, which is nice. The name gets passed around a lot among small-cap biotech junkie circles. Luckily, the downside here is pretty low.... and as far as the upside goes: $3 on good news, $4+ on great news and hype. I very much look forward to the prospects with this play if the rambling hasn't made that obvious lol.
MONTH: For the sake of being transparent, my only long-term (defined as being held more than a week) holding is $BGMD. I did buy it way too high - 1000 shares @ 0.81 PPS, but it's an interesting Buyout gamble. I am okay with this going to zero, as it is my one and only true gamble, but if things in the coming few weeks go right here, this will be what really brings my portfolio to the next level. The Stocktwits board for this stock actually contains a lot of good DD. I love the community that's built around this play. The Yahoo Message board has some of the best bear cases on this as well. Great reality-checkers there. This is indeed a very risky play - I can't condone placing money you *need* in this.
WATCH LIST/OTHER: I won't delve into this section too heavily, as I need to get back to school work lol (finals week!!), but my two companies that I've been in and out (and am currently "on the fence") with are COCP and $LVNVF. COCP has nice steady 3-day runs on insider-buys, and any news on its pipeline will certainly run this up to 52-week highs. I am bullish long-term with this company, but its current valuation is extraordinarily high, and there is no official pipeline as of yet.
There's currently a reverse merger taking place with $LVNVF, which is a terrible mining company originally, but what seems to be a very good and operational private Isreali firm (SciVac) with a tested Hep-B vaccine etc. is getting reverse-merged into it.... there will be a restructuring that'll follow the completion of this merger, and a split will take place in which 1 share of $LVNVF will = 1 share of SciVac and .5 shares of Spinco (mining company).... the volatility will be interesting - lots of hype may generate based around the possibility of SciVac entering North American/US markets.
Will need to see price action and gear-out sentiment/hype before buying the new companies. Also, there's too much uncertainty with playing this before the split. Would HATE to get caught into a trap in which the two splitted companies' shares are low to begin with (relative to pre-split), if not tank. Nonetheless, $LVNVF news will be good to track in the case that more information comes out on valuations and the market cap & share count of SciVac. The mining company will inevitably tank, as everyone seems to be in $LVNVF for the SciVac shares and speculation, but THAT could yield and interesting opportunity to buy on the dip for a rebound. Will need to get a solid grip on Spinco's valuation to bring a little more certainty into such an option. In any case, there will be volatility. That itself is exciting.
RAMBLE: That all being said, my goal is to meet the fund requirements to move from Scottrade to Interactive Brokers ASAP, so that I can start running a short selling strategy. As of now, my plays are based off of earnings and insider buys. As my trades reflect, I've tried to go long into pump-and-dump momentum, but I have not performed well there, so that won't be happening again any time soon.
Very very excited to go full-swing into a short-selling strategy on such pump and dumps. In the mean time, I'll likely be position-trading and paper-trading options all month... When the funds are there, got a few long (1-2yr) OTM call options I've in mind that'll very likely be... lucrative. I look forward to these next couple of years. So much opportunity.
PS: If anybody has any advice, critiques, and especially learning materials on options to offer, I'd be in much appreciation. I do not yet fully understand how options contracts are valued and what all effects their valuations beyond a basic level. Thank you, and stay classy folks.
-MRP3
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