@Watchlist 4/12 Thu

 

Slinging options the way I do it doesn't really work like chart based watchlist gurus do it - keep that in mind - I do not lay core positions on what I list below UNLESS some shark lays wood in the far dated options.  In fact I make these lists to create additional clues / setups I like because if they than get additional unusual options flow - it works out with a much higher probability and more explosively.

 

Market

Thursday/Friday before April monthly expiration is here... This is when the lows for the expiration period is pretty much set and you get any flushes... Early in the week we saw SPY 260.5 as low - I can't tell you that this will stay and be the bottom as like I said anything is game next 2 days but too really be sure until noon next Tuesday.  So if you lay wood in calls I would not touch anything closer than Monday after expiry which is Monday, April 23rd that if you are opening a core position say like Apr 23 or Apr 25th 270 calls...  If the 260.5 holds as the low and they cant pull a fast one tomorrow on the bulls, serious squeeze potential to 2685 on the ES_F... So yes you can lotto that shit - all in the open tomorrow.  HOPE AND PRAY for another weak open like today because makes trading WAY easier and option premiums on calls much advantageous.

 

VXX this has a major iHS setup but doest jive with my market view... I am still going for SPY descending triangle that fails somewhere from 270/275 range...   I think market is setting up for a sell in May and go away which i think will be sucky until October and rocky for bulls.  Saw some nutso load up IWM put fly literally 50 handles under where it closed for Friday. lol Also saw a baller roll their 271 puts down to 258 july puts in CBOE mini ES options for $7 a pop - position he closed he made 300% in super size too.  2 days ago remember some but laid would for May or June 293 / 300 / 305 call butterfly i think that again is nuts.  My fav still is the guy 3 days ago who laid wood in 265 calls for December 2019 in size that I think is a very sensible trade and very high prob finishes in good profits unless the world ends over the summer.

 

Seasonality

April is the most bullish month in my view in past 10 years and it is especially strong the 2nd half of the month and weakest the 2nd week of the month.   Dont listen to these fucktards who are short this short that - follow price.  

 

Accum Play

RENN they are running the shit out of accum algoes on the name... $25K bet today in October 15 call options too... I like it but I need more dollar size in options to be convinced for a core

 

 

Chart Plays

DKS flat top

FIVE day2

 

Earnings

BBBY earnings dumper

 

Activist/Catalyst

QNST dummy squeeze / upside followed by downside as soon as (well if) kerrisdale re-up / defense comes out - you know the drill... skeezer company with sleazy business but they pulled a fast one with the early e/r release really amazing who fucked up that was after close today...  put a note on twitter today when it was down from its 52 hi of 14+ to 9 and change that was the time to get some calls for bottom fishing if you did ya killed it. 

 

RSX 21c <0.10 look good for lotto calls... price drop was too quick and not orderly in my book so the bounce had its day 1 today and tomorrow we look for continuation / could also take the not so cowboyish route and work with 20.5

 

YNDX day 2 tomorrow / red to green would be fantastic / 35 ish area was the vwap / targets low $37 / booked a nice 300% on this today

 

LNG chatter was on XOM being interested... news after bell is they increased natty gas stake in papua new guinea... vwap was around 57 area and shit closed multiple option levels under that so likely pops right off the gate then need to see opening range OPR5 OPR15 candles to lay wood...  if holds 57 right off the gate they can work this up to 58.5 conversely after the initial pop they can easy fade this down to 55 area... history of strong early rallies than strong fades... traders stock

 

Earnings Proxy

GS lay some wood in GS calls as proxy for friday financials earnings... after all this Q1 fuckery you would think bank etc made a killing...