Understand that market has 10 days to go ATH (x25000 April 6 282c 1.51 opened Friday) BUT 30 days to drop sub 2700 ($VIX Mar 21st $25c 123.5k at 0.25) and we are gonna get both.  If $vix were to pop to 25 to 30 in the next 30 days we likely see sub 2700 hard down to 2650s.  

 

References:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/06/us/politics/senate-vote-bank-regulation-dodd-frank.html

 

 

Market Stats

$VIX has just seen a 25-trading-day intraday "draw down" of 36.99 pts.  Every single time ('08, '09, '15, '18) VIX has dropped at least 30 pts within 25 trading days, it then spiked up between 6 and 43 pts within the NEXT 25 trading days.

 

how did $SPX fare after that last <14 >50 <14 $VIX round trip?  Not so great.  Within 2 weeks, it began a new correction.

 

Tariff announcement day last for bush was -0.5/-0.6% which was same for Trump.  Following day was+1.5% for both.  In 1 month Bush got a -2% in the mkt which is guess what roughly 2680 area on ES yeah the area we did NOT repair last week.

 

Weekly stats: If we get a draw down this week stats dictate about a 2.5% down draft with 12% of past occurence with no drawdown at all.  Ideally ATH happens this week and fast because the bear stats that are lining up right after are fkn juicy. 

 

Daily stats: Monday's SPY stats of staying green at 50/50 so not good odds so wait for concrete signs like OPR15 break outs etc etc.  But when QQQs hit ATH, the following Monday being positive is 56.3% of the time and the following full week is positive 59.2% of the time.   So decent edge.

They need rotation because Semi-conductors will top this week no questions about it.  I like financials for this week.  

 

 

$SPY & Overall Market

scenario1: I see monday gap up, gap fill then rip to $SPY 282 gap close area followed by 3 days of fuckers than Friday reversal higher and do the delta hedge squeeze 

 

scenario2: $SOX are topped with open gap up, $MU $NVDA etc start getting slapped they let $SPY backtest 275/276 area and back n fill to allocate more idiot shorts who like to get on the bus in the middle of the route. Then red open tuesday followed by a sweet turn around tuesday with senate bank deregulation vote pass.  Then bank especially small community banks to the moon.  In fact $QABA the small community bank ETF has options :)

 

scenario3: $SOX are toppy but while $SPY gets the ATH alternative route is for them jones $AAPL to $184+ $AMZN to 1600 $GOOGL to 1200... How else do they keep the $QQQ up?

 

SPY Trade I am looking for:

CORE Swing

  Mar 9 QQQ made ATH

  SPY 80% chance follows in 10 days

  So Mar 23rd SPY should hit ATH

  SPY ATH 286.63

  SPY currently 278.87

  SPY is 2.79% from ATH

  Looking to Buy To Open x200 Mar 29 285c <.60

  Time target 10:10-10:20AM EST most likely

  3/12 eod update: Did not initiate the position.  3 possible outcomes for the SPY so giving it time for a firmer signal.  We get to potentially buy a back test of 275/274 so no rush.

 

Scalps

If Mkt opens 10+ handles down, buy 1st lot down at LowVolumeNode1 if further weakness scale LowVolumeNode2 than 2pm est ride higher

3/12 eod update: scalped the open as mentioned for a nice 45% gainer trader and closed and right after it closed SPY gave all its gains back :)  This behavior was expected stats put it at a 50/50 day with a second stat giving it a 56% green chance as detailed above so green to indecision was what I was looking for on the day.  Looking for more action tomorrow.  

 

SPY Market Calendar Outlay

Mar12w OPEX Mon

   -> Tuesday 3/13 Senate small bank de-reg vote

   -> Tuesday 3/13 CPI #s out if >3% mkt tanks else under 2.3% mkt kazooms higher

Mar14w OPEX Wed

Mar16m OPEX Fri

 

Mar19w Q FUCKERY WEEK

Mar21w Q FUCKERY WEEK

Mar23w Q FUCKERY WEEK  *SPY ATH

 

Mar26w QOPEX Mon

Mar28w QOPEX Wed

Mar29q QOPEX Thu

 

Apr2w

Apr4w

Apr6w

 

Apr9w M FUCKERY WEEK

Apr11w M FUCKERY WEEK

Apr13w M FUCKERY WEEK

 

Apr16w  OPEX Wed

Apr20m OPEX Fr

 

 

NOTABLE UNUSUAL OPTIONS

Week-Ending Friday, Mar 9

XOM Jun 77.5c 1.70 x5006 $850K

MSFT Jan19 $100c

KR Mar23 24c SSR

ALXN May 130c 9.6 sell Jul 155c

AABA  Jul 87.5c -> Financial Services

BZUN Oct18 40c 11.352 x500 $568K

STZ April 240c / Julys now at 230

EDIT Big Sweeper activity

 

 

STOCKS ON WATCH

3/11 $SOXS - $SOX x3 Short - Keep this handy... Plenty in Semi-conductors to short after we top this week...

3/12 eod update: 7th straight day of runs so not yet... #patience

 

[ACTIVE TRADE] 3/12 $MU Well it ran up over 10% intraday.  Just insane.  $COMPQ nasdaq composite is but a few points away from the 2010 to 2018 wave 3 monthly top...  I am early but have the weekly 58puts which are in -50% pain at the moment as I calculated 60 to be resistance...  This is gonna be a fight and likely wont come to fruition until thursday/friday unless CPI comes in hot and market tanks... Anyway gonna look to either roll the position up and out or scalp around the code we'll see.

 

3/11 $TSLA look for green to red unless short-term sizable call buyers are detected.  As is this is a short down to 300s in next week at minimum cant be a reliable long until Elon Musk compentation vote 2 weeks out is done and gone...

3/12 eod update: well sweeps did come and boy did they give us some major bull run on this over 5%... 

 

3/11 $BABA if China keeps up or how west view the whole president for life deal.  overnight asia markets bull galore.  195c <$1.2 for the week way worth the risk or keep it safe go Apr6 192.5c <$5

3/12 eod update:  these worked wonderfully today

 

3/11 $QD if e/r good 17.5c or 20c 0.80 area ->  t22 t29 this CAN pull a $BZUN

3/12 eod update:  e/r came out decent and rev up 100% y/o/y.  Now we watch for sharpies buying more calls and we chase... #patience

 

3/11 $OKTA doing the same shit $SQ did after e/r... first the pop then vomit... clear blue skies in a day or two very probable

3/12 eod update:  not a terrible day... did the wash and then recovered some... giving it a day or two more #patience 

 

3/11 $GS look nobody likes the big ass names alright.  But Tuesday another bank deregulation vote in senate that is likely gonna pass.  This thing has slapped 272.5 and dropped 10-12 pts right after multiple times in recent weeks so this time might do the charm.  Turnaround Tuesday 275c 1.25

3/12 eod update:  fantastic on this today. boom and boom. more flow too has more upside need to watch CPI on weakness any price dislocation could be worth loading into senate vote

 

3/11 $BAC options cheap and after $SOX toppiness this is next RSI high but not at elliott target candidate for rotation and almost all these banks have a cup n handle

[ACTIVE TRADE] 3/12 eod update:  fantastic on this today. boom and boom. more flow too has more upside need to watch CPI on weakness any price dislocation could be worth loading into senate vote

 

3/11$WFC cheapest of them all and further from target...

3/12 eod update:  still shitty not much yet here

 

3/12 $MS flow coming in multiple sweeps this one can go with senate vote as well.  Added on watch.

 

3/11 $NVDA looking for blow top w/ $247.5c ~$3 but might f around until $AVGO e/r Thu night

3/12 eod update:  fantastic day on this! it now has a DI buy signal so revising trade plan look for Apr20 $275c around 3/3.5 with a stop at $2

 

3/11 $BKNG it'll be untouchable with monday premiums but could still have a date with 2200 come  friday

3/12 eod update:  hit 2218 today lol nuts.  Again with those premium i could care less.