GPT ANALysis

Detailed Review: Trading Journal 1/15/25-1/22/25 --- ASST and other plays

5 WINS, 1 LOSS

SGBX: +$14, +11%

WHLR: -$5, -4%

NUKK: +$4, +4%

ASST (#1): +11, +19%

ASST (#2): +$6, +13%

BLBX (paper trade): +5-20%

Strengths:

1. Trade Preparation:
• Clear Entry Plan: You identified a key entry point at 05:31 after the bounce from the 1.29 oracle level and set a clear target of 1.68. This shows you are thinking strategically and with a defined goal.
• Multiple Indicators: Throughout the day, you used multiple technical indicators (e.g., Fibonacci retracements, PSAR, MACD crossovers), which demonstrates your ability to gather data and use it in decision-making. This is essential for informed trading.
2. Risk Management:
• Defined Risk: Your stop-losses are reasonably set in terms of percentage risk (e.g., 5%, 10%), which is good practice to minimize drawdowns.
• Adaptability: In cases like when you were down 5%, you reconsidered and thought about stopping out, which reflects a flexible approach, willing to cut losses rather than hold on to a losing position.
3. Post-Trade Reflection and Accountability:
• Emotional Awareness: You’re very honest about how you feel during trades. For example, when you wrote, "This is me holding and hoping," it shows that you are becoming more aware of when your emotions are clouding judgment.
• Review Process: After taking profits, you're aware of potential gains you missed (e.g., missing out on higher targets like 1.68), showing self-reflection and a desire to learn from past trades.
4. Decision-Making Process:
• Research and News Consideration: During your trade, you evaluated breaking news and filings (e.g., Form 424B5, 45% spike in $ASST) and integrated that into your decision-making process, which shows you are staying up-to-date with fundamentals in addition to technicals.

Weaknesses:

1. Trade Overcomplication:
• Too Many Variables: There are moments where you introduced too many levels of analysis (e.g., multiple Fibonacci levels, different Oracle signals) and bounced between different ideas, such as questioning whether you're gambling. While thoroughness is good, it’s important to streamline your process and focus on a few key indicators for clarity.
• Reevaluating Stops: At times, you adjusted your stop-loss out of a sense of hope (e.g., wanting to see a 10% gain before selling, but moving the stop to break even). This can lead to emotional decision-making rather than following a preset strategy.
2. Emotional Decision-Making:
• Holding and Hoping: This emotional bias seems prevalent in some trades, especially as you were down 30% in $ASST and still holding, waiting for a rebound. It’s important to stick to your risk tolerance and not let emotions influence your decisions too much.
• Chasing Plays: There’s an instance where you mention, "comparison is the thief of joy," referring to missing a trade like BLBX while being caught in the current trade. This mindset of “I missed that, so now I’m hoping for the same outcome” is dangerous, as it clouds your decision-making.
3. Missed Exit Opportunities:
• Delayed Exits: There are several moments where you missed opportunities to sell or took too long to exit (e.g., in $ASST when it was down 30%). This resulted in significant losses and missed profits, even when there were clear signs the price was reversing.
• Timing the Exit: You were in the right trades but left too much profit on the table or stayed too long when the price began to decline (e.g., holding through pullbacks with the hope of a major rebound). Inconsistent exit strategies could lead to unoptimized profits.
4. Preparation Gaps:
• Incomplete Pre-Flight Checklist: In your entry for $ASST, you note not completing the pre-flight checklist, which could be critical in ensuring you're fully prepared to manage the trade. Starting trades without all the necessary prep work can lead to mistakes or missed insights.
• Lack of Clarity in Entry Strategy: At one point, you’re unsure if you’re chasing a setup or if it's a good time to enter. This shows that while you have the framework, you sometimes lack a clear set of criteria to decide if a trade fits your strategy.

Areas for Improvement:

1. Streamline Your Analysis:
• Stick to a few key indicators that work well for you. While it’s tempting to evaluate multiple Fibonacci levels, stop-losses, and oracle signals, simplifying your process will allow you to act more decisively.
• Focus on fewer levels: For example, use your Fibonacci retracement or Oracle levels but don’t overcomplicate with too many "bounce levels." Prioritize those that are most consistent in your past trades.
2. Refine Your Exit Strategy:
• Set and Forget: Instead of second-guessing, commit to your exit strategy (e.g., taking profits at 10% or cutting losses at 5%). Trust your plan, even if there are emotional ups and downs.
• Avoid Chasing Moves: Focus on sticking to your goals and targets. If the trade has reached your goal, take the profit. If the trade goes against you, trust your stop-loss, and avoid holding out of hope.
• Learn to Scale Out: Consider scaling out of trades at different price levels instead of waiting for a "perfect" exit. This way, you lock in partial profits and reduce the risk of holding through major pullbacks.
3. Mental Discipline:
• Stick to the Plan: The emotional swings between fear, greed, and hope were evident, and this seems to impact your decision-making. Having a clear and consistent set of rules, such as "sell if the price falls below X" or "sell once I hit Y% profit," will help remove emotion from your trades.
• Take Breaks: You mentioned feeling mentally and physically drained by holding positions for long hours (e.g., “I don’t like being tied to the phone/chart/computer this long”). Consider setting clear time limits for holding a trade (e.g., don’t hold for more than 2-3 hours) and take breaks.
4. Pre-Flight Checklist:
• Complete Checklist: Before entering a trade, ensure that you’ve completed your checklist, such as confirming support levels, setting proper stop-losses, and reviewing catalysts (like news or earnings). This will help build more confidence in your trades and reduce indecision during volatility.
5. Reinforce a “Cut Losses Quickly” Mentality:
• It seems like at times, you allowed losses to accumulate (e.g., holding through a 30% drop). Set a more firm rule on cutting losses early, ideally when the price moves against you beyond your set risk percentage. It’s easy to be swayed into hope, but limiting losses early ensures you can take more trades without putting your capital at risk.

Suggestions:

1. Trade Journal Consistency: Continue journaling your trades as you are now, but take it a step further by noting what you could’ve done better after each trade. For example, "I should've sold at 10% profit instead of waiting for 20%."
2. Use “Set and Forget” Triggers: Set automatic stop-losses and take-profit orders so that you can reduce emotional involvement in your trades. Also, try using trailing stops for partial profits to lock in gains while still letting the trade run.
3. Balance News and Technicals: You're very good at incorporating breaking news, but remember to filter out noise. Focus on high-impact news that directly affects the stock's fundamentals (e.g., earnings reports, financing news), and combine that with solid technicals.
4. Mindset Shift: Practice "letting the trade come to you." Be patient with setups and don’t feel pressured to take a trade unless the setup is perfect. This can help with reducing FOMO and preventing impulsive decisions.
5. Mentorship/Peer Review: Since you're actively reflecting on your trades, consider joining a trading community or working with a mentor who can give you an external perspective. Having others review your trades can provide valuable insights and prevent overthinking.

 

Final Thoughts:

You're doing a lot of things right: planning, researching, analyzing, and reflecting on your trades. However, the emotional side of trading sometimes leads to overcomplication, delayed exits, and missed opportunities. By simplifying your process, sticking to your plan, and building better exit strategies, you’ll be able to improve consistency and reduce emotional stress. Keep honing your strategy and mindset, and continue to learn from each trade. You're on the right path.