With a weekend of studying and mentally preparing to be more disciplined, adjusting my strategy, and process I was ready this morning to hold for the better trade when it presented itself. I was even willing to risk a bigger position size if I saw what I was looking for.
The market had gapped up solid from Friday's big selloff into the close. I was looking for a weak open red to green with claim to newer morning highs or signs of lower lows. When we get big sell offs or big green days on a Friday the following Mondays tend to be range days instead of continued trends unless there is big news.
The news Friday was mainly driven by the conflicts over seas. Over the weekend the concerns seemed to taper off as other nations are trying to step in and negotiate.
This led to the early markets opening Sunday night as well as Bitcoin all weekend holding steady and starting to show recovery. This helped lead to the pre market gaps we had today.
On SPY the open wasn't profit taking but significant buying reclaiming pre market highs. after the 1st 5 minute candle it showed signs of gathering supply and accumulating at the $601.50 level.
Accumulation is just potential energy till it has a direction. With lower volume it's just a matter to plot out a more concentrated breakout or break down levels in this consolidation. For me the breakout was the previous weeks resistance level of $601.75 and the break below $601 as this was a main level pre market and the pivot of Friday's reversal.
It broke the $601.75 level and I held for confirmation as it was a big green candle and hit my next S/R level @ $602.32 and bounced off of it. I switched to the 1 minute candles to get a better read on this battle line and to get a head start on setting up my entry.
My next 2 S/R levels up were $603.57 and $604.41 and, on the downside, the $601.75 we just passed, the $601.00, and then $599.42 if it broke $601
Roughly $2 of range which sets up well as we typically enter out of the money around the 15 delta options and $2 moves double our entry size. Over the weekend we were evaluating closer to the money positions and wanting to get more into the 20-25 delta with more consistent upside to the trades.
Just before the top of the hour it broke the $602.32 level with volume and increasing market direction. the VIX broke its level of $19.25 and gave us confidence to enter here with size.
I bought 10 of the SPY 606 calls ending today. It was just past the 15 delta but a better price point for the account than the $605 calls as I would only be able to buy a few. With 10 calls here it's lower risk and if rocket ships matching the high of the previous week of $606.38 we would have over $1k here.
Looking for a test of $603.57 here, it hit and consolidated showing more bull flag on the 1 minute and non stop buying on the 5, 15, and 30 minute charts.
It broke this level and we started the exit plan as it approached the $604.41. We were already over 100% here. I thought about taking some profits but decided if I exit it's a full position exit and rolled my stops to the lows of previous candles.
It struggled to break and stay above the $604 level. With the rest of the market fighting to maintain levels I saw this as the sign to get out and exited the full position with a massive win and doubled the account!
Day 15.. 1 trade, Account gained 124% Up to $268.95
This is huge as Wednesday is FOMC and we like having some ammo going into this event.
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