On Friday Hurricane Matthew was about to hit Florida. I don't know much about Hurricanes, especially their trajectory near Florida. I also Didn't know much about $UVE. I saw that the stock had already lost 20% of it's value since the projection of the Hurricane was to hit Florida. I rated this trade a #10. I've never rated a trade that high and have to admit that I was following a guru's short ideas, hook, line, and sinker. Looking back, I can see that I was using the intuitive mind (lazy) to assess the rating. If the deliberative mind had been engaged I might have asked the "what if questions" what's the worst thing that could happen type questions. the only risk assessment I did was to figure that I was willing to lose 2k on this trade because I was sure I was going to make 10K + Interesting because the next morning after the hurricane didn't make it to landfall in Florida, I was down over 10K, not the 2K I thought I might lose As I see the stock starting to go up, I realized that this stock might go back to where it came from and that would wipe me out. I'm in huge size at 3k shares. I was so sure that this was going to be a homerun, that I didn't want to regret not taking on a lot of size after the imminent dump. And because of this strong bias, I was completely blind to the real risks of this trade, which are mostly attributed to the enormous size in which I am currently holding short